Courtesy iptvdaily.com
Preview: Bill Gates on the Future of IPTV
Says people will laugh at the TV we have today. Here’s what’s in store instead.
David Cotriss
Bill Gates' speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2007 hinted at some interesting possibilities that IPTV will offer in the future. He even went so far as to say that in 5 years, people will laugh at the TV we've had up to now. While the majority of TV watchers are not laughing yet, it just might happen eventually. Convergence is likely to be a driving force, as evidenced by the recent announcement at CES about the combined Xbox 360/IPTV console.While the future looks bright with strong market growth, it may be a while before the truly innovative stuff happens and longtime habits change. “I have no doubt TV, as we know it today, will change dramatically, but it’s going to take a lot longer than 5 years for most people to really see a fundamental difference in how they watch TV,” said Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for broadband and IPTV at Infonetics Research. “The vast majority of people still receive traditional broadcast TV and still channel surf. Just because Microsoft and many other companies are making it much easier for you to choose video content based on your preferences doesn’t necessarily mean that these same people aren’t going to sit down in front of the TV without any particular preferences at all. IPTV and on-demand video won’t change that channel surfing behavior for some time. But in essence, TV is changing and will continue to change, because the Internet is forcing it to. But we won’t see a massive, dramatic change for another 8-10 years.”
Big Changes AheadWhile this may sound like the same old “rain on the parade” we’ve heard a million times before, the reality is that change is happening, and will happen more going forward, and that media companies must adapt. In his speech, Gates noted the ability to see just the news you want with more personalized ads and interactive educational content. Heynen notes that this is possible today. “Just look at TiVo and their integration of web-based content, as well as strategic ads placed during particular programs in which those particular products appear. Also, take a look at what Google Video is doing by aggregating videos from YouTube and other online video sites and then placing text ads based on the tags people use when uploading their videos.”Custom targeted advertising, such as your neighbor seeing a different version of an ad for the same product, is a key area Heynen sees driving innovation down the road. Yet, as he noted, this raises some much more advanced possibilities, along with ethical issues. “You can then take this to an extreme and start applying it to politics and profiling based on party affiliation, for example. My concern with personalization of news and content is what I call ‘over-personalization.’ Who determines what is important for a community, a nation, a world to see and understand? What is shared news when you have your interests and I have mine? Newspapers served this purpose and, if they are indeed dying, who will do it?” This could be where future innovation hits a crossroads.Convergence is a key area driving future innovation in IPTV, where all types of devices will be combined into one interactive platform. “I think the Xbox announcement is significant because it really shows how converged IPTV can be,” said Heynen. “Because the Internet will ultimately prove as popular a diversion and source of entertainment as TV, we will continue to see more convergence like this. The question is: how do you satisfy each individual family member’s content preferences? IPTV is a way to do it because it makes the delivery of various forms of content -- broadcast TV, VOD, online video, gaming, IM, VoIP -- all share the same transport medium. Once you’ve got the set-top device in place that can intuitively navigate all this content as individual silos, the next step -- and where IPTV holds its greatest potential -- is to mix, match, and combine services on the fly, based on user preferences.”
The Rights Problem
Before that kind of advanced innovation can happen, DRM (digital rights management) issues need to be solved, something Gates noted in his speech. While Microsoft includes a DRM component in its IPTV middleware, Heynen said it’s still a major issue for IPTV operators and content owners. “The content owners are still getting a handle on IPTV as a delivery mechanism and want to ensure that it is just as secure as traditional RF or DTT broadcasting. When content owners see IP, they immediately think Napster, BitTorrent, and millions of dollars in lost revenue due to the unlawful sharing of their content. So, service providers looking to secure content re-transmission deals with content owners have to get over that objection first and then prove they have the DRM tools in place to protect the content.”On other future predictions, Heynen stated, “In Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asian-Pacific regions, we will see more hybrid DTV/IPTV deployments than pure IPTV, primarily to get around the DRM issue. Broadcast television will still be delivered over-the-air, with specialty channels and on-demand available via a broadband connection.” So when you unwrap that new Xbox console with IPTV capability, it will be the first step towards true convergence of everything into a single IPTV platform, and that’s where the future really lies.
